[Publication] The impact of extreme climate events on agricultural production in the EU

Phenomena such as heatwaves, cold spells, heavy rains, storm surges, flooding, landslides, droughts, wildfires and intense storms (wind, hail) can be termed extreme events. When such phenomena occur simultaneously, they are referred to as compound events. Climate change may influence the frequency and severity of extreme events, this attribution being particularly clear-cut for heatwaves. Historical and projected trends in the occurrence and the severity of extreme events converge towards similar pictures: an increase in extremely hot summer temperatures over all of Europe, progressively drier conditions in the South of Europe, and an increase in heavy rainfall episodes in Northern and Central Europe. The magnitude of these increases is concerning. The number of climatological heatwave days will see at least a fivefold increase by the end of the century in the coolest climates, and up to thirty times more in warmer climates. Drought severity in Southern Europe could triple by the end of the century.
Losses specific to the agriculture sector account for more than 60% of drought-linked losses, or around €5 billion annually (based on Naumann et al, 2021). This is projected to increase in the future. Extreme events also have cascading consequences on ecological functions and on farming economics. Vulnerable sub-sectors include non-irrigated cereals, and specifically maize; fruit trees and perennials; tubers grown in regions with heavy precipitation extremes; and livestock for its dependence on green fodder.