[Publication] Megatrends in the agri-food sector: global overview and possible policy response from an EU perspective

Original publication: September 2019
Authors: Ines Ferreira, Maria Kirova, Francesco Montanari, Consuelo Montfort, Juan Moroni, Rik Neirynck, Monica Pesce [1]
Short link to this post: http://bit.ly/MGT629Ag
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This study explores the global trends that influence the way the world will produce, distribute, sell and consume food in a changing environment influenced by several key drivers of change (demographic and economic growth, evolving consumption patterns, technological progress, integration of global trade and climate change). Based on the challenges that agriculture and food systems are facing to feed a growing population in a sustainable way, it provides policy options along contrasting and alternative scenario lines.

Key Findings

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The world faces a huge challenge to feed itself over the coming decades, as the world population is expected to reach 10 billion by 2050.

A 50 % increase in food production (as compared to present levels) will be needed by this date to feed an additional 2.3 billion people. According to current dietary trends and the expected rise in income per capita over the period, this might entail significant increases in crop yields and livestock units. The latter will prove challenging, as land used for livestock production already represents 80 % of all agricultural land.

While hunger has been reduced globally since the 1990s, more than 820 million people still have insufficient food. At the same time, global shifts to unhealthy diets in middle and high-income countries increase the burden of obesity and diet-related diseases.

The agri-food sector also faces environmental challenges, as food production is the largest cause of global environmental change: agriculture occupies 40 % of global land and food production is responsible for 21 % of global greenhouse-gas emissions and 70 % of freshwater use.

In the context of several key drivers of change (demographic and economic growth, evolving consumption patterns, technological progress, integration of global trade or climate change) which will all impact the agricultural value chain, the agri-food sector will thus have to adapt to this increasing food demand while at the same time addressing sustainability and health challenges.

Against this background the study outlines four alternative and contrasting scenarios that could shape the future of the food sector in the coming decades:

• Scenario 1 “Small steps but no goals achieved”
• Scenario 2 “Mass production at all cost”
• Scenario 3 “Local survivors”
• Scenario 4 “Food and sustainability for all”

Link to the full study: http://bit.ly/629_205

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[1] With contributions from Alexandre Arcos Pujades, Estefania Lopez Montesinos, Esteban Pelayo; review by Jose Diogo Albuquerque, Jon Eldridge, Daniel Traon

Selection of figures:

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Impact of agriculture value chain on the environment

This figure provides the growth in sugar cane, soybeans and cassava crop production required to feed the population in 2050 under FAO’s “Towards sustainability scenario”.

This figure analyzes the growth in raising poultry, pigs and cattle required to feed the population in 2050.

The figure compares the growth in cereals crop production required to feed the population in 2050.

Food waste and losses at the different stages

Vegetarians around the world (2018)

Projected GDP per capita

Population growth in the world

Study Logic

Survey: EU policy approach to tackle agri-food sector challenges

Survey: At which level should solutions be sought for?

The selected commodities in this segment are soybean, cassava and sugar cane. Their expected levels of production in 2050 are presented in this graph.

The selected commodities in this section are buffaloes, cattle, pigs and poultry. This graph shows their expected levels of production in 2050.

The selected commodities in this segment are wheat, paddy rice and grain maize. Their forecasted levels of production in 2050 are depicted in this graph.